Corn, Soybeans & Wheat gain on Russian and Brazilian planting woes.

Today’s trade saw solid gains across corn, soybeans, and wheat, with soybeans and Chicago wheat leading the charge. Key technical levels were approached in both corn and soybeans, while wheat markets continued to be influenced by weather issues in Russia.

Corn

December corn futures (CZ24) traded up 3-1/2 cents to $4.15-1/4 per bushel, closing just below the long-term trend line, which is now acting as resistance. This trend line had provided support earlier in the year but has been capping prices since June 28th when corn fell below it. Today, corn closed just a quarter-cent below the trend, which sits at $4.15-1/2. Traders are watching closely for a potential breakout, with the possibility of a move above the trend line signaling further bullish momentum. Basis bids were steady to firmer at elevators as the U.S. harvest continues, but weakness at processors reflected continued struggles in the ethanol sector. Brazilian corn planting delays due to dry weather are adding global supply concerns, supporting prices.

Soybeans

November soybeans (SX24) surged 11 cents to close at $10.53-1/4 per bushel, marking the highest price since July 26, 2023. With soybeans firmly above the $10.40 level, the market is now eyeing the next resistance levels at $10.60 and $10.86. Dry conditions in Brazil have delayed planting, particularly in Mato Grosso, where rains remain sporadic over the next two weeks. Export demand remains strong, with China continuing to purchase U.S. soybeans, and basis bids are holding steady, reflecting tightness in supply. Funds have also been covering short positions ahead of the month’s end, providing additional support to the market.

Soft Wheat (Chicago Wheat)

Chicago soft red winter wheat (WZ24) gained 11-1/4 cents, closing at $5.89-1/4 per bushel, just 9-1/2 cents below the high from September 13th. The 20-day moving average has provided solid support throughout September, currently sitting at $5.72, giving traders confidence in the market’s ability to hold these gains. Weather concerns in Russia continue to drive the market, as the slowest winter wheat planting season in over a decade could have significant implications for next year’s global supply. Export demand remains a challenge due to the strong U.S. dollar, but weather-driven supply concerns are providing solid support for prices.

Hard Wheat (KC Wheat)

Kansas City wheat (KCWZ24) continued its losing streak against Chicago wheat, falling for the sixth consecutive session. KC wheat closed up 5-1/2 cents at $5.81-1/2 per bushel but remains under pressure, now sitting at an 8-1/2 cent discount to Chicago wheat. The spread between the two markets has widened since September 19th, when KC wheat fell below par with Chicago. Weather concerns in Russia are still lending some support to the market, but overall, KC wheat has struggled to regain ground against Chicago.

Spring Wheat (Minneapolis Wheat)

Minneapolis spring wheat (MWZ24) was flat, closing up just 3-3/4 cents at $7.00 per bushel. The market has been trading in a narrow 34-cent range since September 4th, with the last five days confined to just a 19-cent range. Minneapolis wheat has also been losing ground to Chicago wheat, with the premium narrowing to just 27 cents. Quality concerns regarding Canada’s spring wheat crop have kept some support under the market, but the recent lack of volatility reflects overall subdued trading conditions.

Ag Weather Updates

Dry conditions in Brazil and Russia continue to dominate the narrative, especially for soybeans and wheat. The GFS model shows limited rainfall for northern Brazil and western Russia over the next two weeks, raising concerns about global soybean and wheat supply. In the U.S., the Midwest harvest is progressing, though intermittent rains could cause localized delays. The Plains and western Midwest remain dry, which could accelerate corn harvest but also stress winter wheat crops, particularly in the Southern Plains.

Domestic Developments

U.S. ethanol production remained steady this week at 1.049 million barrels per day, according to the EIA’s mid-session report, but margins continue to face pressure, limiting demand for corn at processors. Strong basis bids at elevators reflect good local demand for corn, but weak processor bids are dampening some of the bullish sentiment. Export sales for U.S. wheat remain subdued due to the strong dollar, making U.S. wheat less competitive globally.

Global Developments

On the global front, Russia’s slow winter wheat planting season continues to worry traders, as the country’s wheat crop could be significantly impacted if weather conditions don’t improve soon. This has lent support to wheat prices across the board, with Chicago wheat benefiting the most. Meanwhile, Brazil’s delayed soybean and corn planting is raising concerns about global supply, which is helping to drive prices higher in U.S. markets. The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to pose challenges for export demand across all three major grains.

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