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Lower across the board with better rains and falling black sea wheat prices pressuring Ags lower.
Corn futures declined, with the July contract (CN24) falling by 8 cents to $4.25-1/2 per bushel.
Soybean futures also dipped, with the July contract (SN24) down 12 cents to $11.63-1/4 per bushel.
Soft wheat futures continued their decline, with the July contract (WN24) down 10-3/4 cents to $5.41-3/4 per bushel, marking the seventh consecutive red day and the 17th of the last 19 trading sessions. This decline pushed wheat prices to their lowest level since April.
Hard red winter (HRW) wheat futures saw the smallest declines, with the KC July contract (KWN24) down 5-1/2 cents to $5.76 per bushel.
Spring wheat futures also declined, with the MGEX July contract (MWN24) falling 8 cents to $5.97 ¼, marking the first time spring wheat fell below $6 this year.
Heavy rain in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa has damaged infrastructure in all three states, with widespread crop flooding noted with the Missouri River in Sioux CIty, Iowa now 20 ft higher than it was this time last year. Damage assessments are still ongoing. Additional rainfall is called for from Omaha across the I-states to Ohio but should steer south of most of the hardest hit areas, with a couple inches called for for much of the Midwest. These rains are likely to further ease drought conditions that had crept up last week. The high pressure ridge currently situated over the Midwest is shifting Eastward, potentially easing oppressive heat in the heart of the Midwest this week, but high temps in the 90s are expected to return by the end of next week for most of the western Corn Belt.
Monday’s delayed Commitment of Traders Report showed speculators continuing to sell off soybeans at a pace not seen since 2019. Funds have net short positions of 105,970 contracts as of mid-June. Corn and wheat also saw managed funds increasing their bearish bets.
The Crop Progress Report showed a slight drop in the good-to-excellent ratings for corn and soybeans. Corn is now at 69% good-to-excellent (the highest in four years), and soybeans are at 67%, which is still relatively high for this time of year despite the adversity seen by producers so far this year. Hard Red Winter Wheat Harvest was 15% ahead of average with 40% of the crop harvested.
Corn basis was mostly unchanged today with ADM Cedar Rapids dn 1 to +26 (N) and Blair, NE up 3 to +33. CIF corn values were +59 (N) up 2 from Mon. CIF beans were steady at +71 (N)
In a flash sale, the USDA confirmed that Mexico purchased 209,931 metric tons yesterday, 187 TMT of that was new crop corn.
Spot natural gas prices in Texas fell below zero for the first time since May, thanks to pipeline maintenance and an oversupply, even though there's high demand from the ongoing heat wave.
Russian wheat export prices have continued to fall on high early harvest yields, keeping their wheat the most competitive on a FOB basis. However, today private forecaster Argus cut its wheat production estimate for Russia to a three-year low of 79.5 million metric tons (MMT), suggesting that the USDA’s last estimate of 83 MMT might still be too high.
Conditions in Australia and Canada have seen some noted improvement in recent weeks.
Egypt's GASC bought 470,000 metric tons of wheat. The lowest offer came from Russia at $227 per metric ton ($246 incl C&F), signaling that the price floor continues to be a hope, not a firm floor selling 3 cargoes. Romania sold an amount equal to Russia, while Bulgaria and Ukraine each sold 1 cargo.
In the EU, wheat exports have dropped to 29.59 million metric tons as of June 23, down from 31.09 million metric tons last year. Barley exports and maize imports are also lower year-over-year. Soybean imports declined slightly, and rapeseed imports have seen a significant drop, reflecting lower availability.
Tomorrow’s EIA reports are expected to show declines in U.S. crude and fuel inventories.
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