Marketing
Markets saw further declines in Corn and Soybeans, but Wheat led the market higher on better than expected exports.
USDA June Acreage Report Friday
USDA Quarterly June 1 Stocks Friday
Personal Consumption Expenditures Friday
CORN:
July futures closed at 413.75, down 6.25 cents (-1.49%).
December futures closed at 433.75, down 2.75 cents (-0.63%).
Prices were pressured by favorable weather forecasts in key growing areas, predicting rain that could alleviate some drought stress and boost crop prospects. However, corn basis remained firm, reflecting reticent sellers or missing bushels. The recent Stats Canada report showed a slight reduction in corn plantings in Canada, adding a subtle bullish undertone as the market anticipates tighter supplies. Corn likely still remains record short for this date.
SOYBEANS:
July futures closed at 1152.25, down 10.50 cents (-0.90%).
November futures closed at 1104.75, down 2.25 cents (-0.20%).
Declines were driven by improved weather forecasts in key growing regions. Recent storms have alleviated some drought stress in Iowa, leading to an improved outlook for soybean yields. Despite the price drop, the soybean basis remained stable, supported by strong domestic crush margins, consistent export demand, and a shortage of sellers. The market is battered hoping for smaller stocks tomorrow amid an ongoing drought of new crop bean sales to China.
SOFT WHEAT:
July futures closed at 559.75, up 18.50 cents (+3.42%).
December futures closed at 601.50, up 18.50 cents (+3.17%).
Export sales surprised to the upside finally offering bulls some respite and beckoning bears to trim their shorts.
HARD WHEAT:
July futures closed at 592.00, up 12.00 cents (+2.07%).
December futures closed at 611.50, up 12.50 cents (+2.09%).
HRW basis strengthened as buyers sought to secure supplies amid the uncertainty. Robust export sales have further added to the bullish sentiment, highlighting the strong global demand for U.S. wheat in the face of potential supply constraints.
SPRING WHEAT:
July futures closed at 610.75, up 14.75 cents (+2.47%).
December futures closed at 636.50, up 14.00 cents (+2.25%).
Support came from reports of record export volumes from StatsCan and concerns over potential rail strikes in Canada that could disrupt grain shipments. Additionally, variable crop conditions in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies have added to market uncertainty, supporting prices. The spring wheat basis reflected strong demand amid tight supply prospects, as end-users scramble to secure high-quality wheat.
AG WEATHER:
The 12Z Ag Weather update indicated continued wet conditions in the central and eastern Midwest, aiding crop development. A cooler and drier trend is expected to follow, which could improve conditions for crop growth, however, corn is reaching its important pollinating stage in the Mid-South amid sweltering temps arising on July1. The EU model and the GFS aren’t in good agreement about how the following 5-15 days will shake out with the GFS offering very little rain, though amid mostly moderate temps. In Canada, recent rains have provided some relief to drought-stricken areas, but more moisture is needed to sustain crop development.
This morning’s export sales showed strong demand for U.S. grains, particularly HRW wheat and soybeans. The updated Drought Monitor revealed slight worsening conditions in the Midwest, particularly in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, and continue to be a significant concern, as they threaten to reduce crop yields and tighten supplies.
Globally, wheat prices were influenced by mixed weather forecasts, with improved conditions in the Western Black Sea region weighing on prices, while ongoing concerns about dryness in Western Russia and Eastern Ukraine provided some support. Russian fob wheat prices saw a slight increase, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around crop yields. In the soybean market, South American export competition continued to pressure U.S. prices despite strong domestic demand.
In outside markets jobless claims fell more than expected, but continued claims reached a 2 ½ year high. The market is waiting on tenterhooks for tomorrow’s personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and a likely touchstone on any future rate cuts (or hikes). The dollar fell .13% against a basket of currencies, with the Euro rising .23% to $1.07/€.
Stocks were mostly unchanged with the Dow and the S&P down less than 0.1% The Nasdaq rose 0.28%. Crude rose 1.04% to $81.74/barrel.
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