Post WASDE Update 10/11/2024

The USDA returned a report that was mostly uneventful, less eventful than trade was expecting, with markets underwater at midday.

Corn saw the Sep 1 stocks incorporated into the S&D, lowering beginning stocks, but yields increased .2 bu/ac instead of decreasing .2 bu/ac as trade had thought. Total Supply still fell though, declining 33 mil bu. Exports increased a further 25 mil bu, now up 125 mil bu from May’s starting point, and only 35 mil bu ahead of last year. Carryout declined 58 mil bu to 1.999 billion bushels, still an increase of 13.5% YoY.

World carryout of corn increased 3.02 MMT in CY23, as Argentina’s stocks were revised significantly upward as the USDA found an additional 1 MMT from CY22’s production, and then another 1.5 MMT in lower exports, partially offset by better domestic use. Better domestic use eats into last year’s carryout growth, but is still ahead of last month’s projections by 1 MMT. Brazil similarly seeing smaller exports but offsetting domestic use increases carryouts by 1 MMT in CY23, but that carryout growth is consumed in better domestic use (ethanol), and CY24 Carryout is unchanged. Elsewhere, exports for Ukraine and Russia fall a combined 1.5 MMT as drought sapped yields in those countries. This then led the USDA to lower China’s imports by 2 MMT. Global Carryout then for CY24 was marked 1.8 MMT lower even as CY23 Carryout increased by 3 MMT, and is now only 2.5 MMT ahead of CY22's carryout.

Soybeans saw trade more accurately guess the yield as the USDA matched the consensus decline of .1 bu/ac from September at 53.1. Minor changes of less than 5 million bushels were shifted around the balance sheet but the Ending stocks remain the same at 550 mil bu, still a 62% increase YoY.

Similarly Global carryouts were little changed month over month with the carryout increasing .07 MMT, but at 134.65 MMT, carryouts still increased by almost 20% Year over Year, a factor weighing heavily on soybeans.

Wheat saw planted area decline 200,000 acres, increasing the YoY decline to 3.5 million acres, harvested acres however increased 600,000 acres, which almost offset the 1 bushel decline to 51.2 bu/ac. Increased imports mostly make up for the decline in production and carryin, but with increased use, CY24 carryout drops 16 mil bu to 812 mil bu, still an increase of 16.7% from last year.

Global Carryouts rise almost 1 MMT in CY23, as Russia’s carryout builds 1.5 MMT as Domestic Feed use is estimated to decline 8.6% since September’s update, mirroring the CY24 projection already assessed for CY24. Ending stocks rose .5 MMT as the EU’s wheat production fell 1 MMT, and a further .5 MMT was lowered from the EU’s exports. Russia’s production fell 1 MMT to 82 MMT, but CY24 carryout recovered .5 MMT

dn 3.2% from last year, as last year’s decreased feeding was incorporated.

Trade closed down 10-12 in Soybeans, and near the day’s lows. Down 4-7 in all classes of wheat, but 5-9 off the lows. Corn closed the day down 2-4, still making new lows since the October high of 434-¼.

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