WASDE Update

From the July WASDE Report

CORN

CY23 (US)

Corn was the big surprise today with Grain stocks lower in CY23, basically ignoring the larger than expected June 1 Stocks for CY23 and increasing use in Feed & Residual (up 75 million bu), and exports (up 75 million bushels), offset by only 5 mil bu of imports to lower the CY23 Carryout to 1.877 bil bu from 2.022 in June and directionally opposite from Trade’s estimate that ending stocks would expand by 300 thousand bushels.

CY24 (US)

In CY24, the Planted acres of 91.5 million acres were adopted and the 181 trendline yield remained unchanged. As expected corn rose to 15.1 bil bu, though trade’s average guess was only 15.016 bil bu. Offsetting that increase were lower carryin (from CY23), limiting Supply’s increase to only 95 million bu. Those bushels were more than offset by 75 million bu increase in Feed & Residual use, rising to 5.825 bil bu, and exports increasing 25 mil bu, to net drop the CY24 Carryout by 5 million bu to 2.097 bil bu from 2.102. The average Farm Gate price dropped 10 cents for U.S. Farmers.

CY23 (World)

Globally, The CY23 Corn carryout shrank from 312.39 MMT to 309.13 MMT. Most of that was the US, but Argentina’s production dropped 1 MMT, to 52 MMT. Brazil was unchanged at 122 MMT.

CY24 (World)

For CY24, the carryout rose from 310.77 to 311.64 MMT. Russian production is marked 400 thousand metric tons lower, with exports reduced by the same.

BEANS

CY23 (US)

Beans saw imports for CY23 tick lower by 5 mil bu, dropping the carryout by the same to 345 mil bu, and 11 lower than trade’s expectation of 356 mil bu.

CY24 (US)

CY24 Bean production fell 15 million bushels on lower planted acres as expected, with yield and acres as expected. No changes to use saw CY24 Carryout fall 20 million bu to 435 mil bu, trade expected 444.

CY23 (World)

Globally, the CY23 Bean carryout rose to 111.25 MMT from 111.07, but with additional purchases by China of 3 MMT, World less China fell to 71.87 MMT from 74.67. Production in Argentina was downgraded 500 thousand metric tons to 49.5 MMT from 50 MMT. Brazil was unchanged at 153 MMT.

CY24 (World)

For CY24 the global carryout was almost unchanged dropping 140 TMT from 127.9 to 127.76 MMT. China’s additional purchases in CY23 also ripple into the CY24 world less China stat.

WHEAT

CY23 (US)

For Wheat, in CY23 imports were down 2 mil bu, but use was also lower with 3 mil bu less used for seed, and 13 mil bu less to exports. This ended up increasing the carryout from 688 mil bu to 702 mil bu. Last Year’s average farm gate price fell 4 cents to 6.96 /bu.

CY24 (US)

This year, planted acres fell 300 thousand, but area harvested increased 800 thousand. Additionally yield rose from the trendline 49.4 bu/ac to 51.8 bu/ac, lifting production from 1.875 to 2.008 bil bu. Last year’s additional carryin of 14 mil bu is mostly offset with 15 mil bu fewer imports. For use, Feed and Residual ticked to mil bu higher, while exports rose 25 mil bu, but the carryout rose 98 million bu, from 758 in June to 856 mil bu in July.

CY23 (World)

Globally, the CY23 Carryout increased from 259.56 MMT to 260.99 MMT Russia’s exports were upgraded 1.5 MMT from 54 MMT to 55.5 MMT. China added 1 MMT of wheat imports.

CY24 (World)

For CY24, Ending stocks rose 4.97 MMT from 252.27 to 257.24 MMT. Argentina’s crop was upgraded .5 MMT to 18 MMT. Canada gained 1 MMT rising to 35 MMT of production.The EU fell .5 MMT. Chinese imports were increased 1 MMT to 12 MMT, while India remains close to 0 with less than ⅓ of a MMT.

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